MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh and Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre have embraced a course of battle and bloodshed in a bid to resolve their rift with Jubaland chief Ahmed Madobe, who was re-elected to a contentious third time period in Monday’s election—deemed “unconstitutional” by Mogadishu authorities.
Villa Somalia has mobilized hundreds of troops throughout two fronts within the Gedo and Decrease Juba areas, clearly signaling a full-scale and deliberate effort to oust Ahmed Madobe from energy. This navy escalation comes regardless of Mogadishu’s public assurances that it isn’t pursuing battle, a calculated transfer to placate worldwide companions and regional communities more and more involved in regards to the prospect of renewed inside battle.
The scenario escalated additional on Tuesday when seven planeloads of troops arrived in Raskamboni, prompting an inevitable retaliation from rival forces. Whereas the precise variety of casualties stays unconfirmed, the escalation underscores the rising depth of the battle.
Mogadishu goals to grab all cities managed by Madobe within the Gedo and Decrease Juba areas, aside from Kismayo, the place the Jubaland chief’s fortified stronghold makes direct confrontation too pricey. But, the urgent query stays: can the Somali authorities seize these different cities with out going through important resistance? This can be a question that any prudent observer would ask.
This isn’t the primary time Madobe has secured energy by means of a doubtful oblique election. In 2019, nonetheless, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud not solely congratulated Madobe but additionally attended his inauguration, regardless of being prevented from boarding a aircraft to Kismayo by the administration of then-President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, who vehemently opposed Madobe and rejected the election outcomes as illegitimate.
On the time, the present Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre performed a pivotal position within the election of Ahmed Madobe, handpicking candidates at Madobe’s request—people who, devoid of any ambition for workplace, have been motivated solely by cash or different guarantees, guaranteeing a seamless and uncontested return to energy for the Jubaland chief.
What has modified now that was not mistaken in 2019? Madobe orchestrated the identical controversial election, which President Mohamud congratulated, with Prime Minister Barre taking part in a central position in its execution. This hypocrisy displays a troubling sample amongst Somali politicians, who assist wrongdoing when it serves their pursuits however oppose it when it really works in opposition to them—an strategy that contradicts each Islamic ideas and the values of civilized society.
If Ahmed Madobe was thought of a reliable chief in 2019 regardless of the controversial election, then by the identical commonplace, he stays a reliable president in 2024. The truth is, he’s arguably a extra credible chief than these in Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and Southwest, who proceed to carry energy by means of unconstitutional time period extensions, somewhat than by authorized.
From one other perspective, has Somalia ever held an election freed from corruption prior to now three a long time of battle? President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud himself was elected in 2022 by means of what’s extensively considered probably the most corrupt election in Somalia’s historical past. Whereas his course of, in contrast to Madobe’s, concerned some stage of contest, the dimensions of bribery was unprecedented, with Mohamud securing victory by paying the very best bribes to MPs. Given this, can a president chosen by means of such questionable means legitimately lecture others on what is correct or mistaken, or constitutional versus unconstitutional?
Since assuming workplace, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has reportedly bought off practically all public lands, displacing impoverished households, with the proceeds allegedly funneled into his private accounts, none of which reached the central financial institution. Moreover, he has altered constitutional clauses to additional his personal pursuits, utilizing bribery and guarantees of profitable positions to safe the assist of MPs—a lot of whom have since seen their guarantees fulfilled.
Given the monitor report of Somalia’s politicians, who’ve persistently did not uphold good governance or adhere to the ideas of legislation and public curiosity, who now has the authority to dictate what is correct or mistaken? Pushed solely by private pursuits, their relentless pursuit of energy and wealth undermines the prospects for real, efficient governance—suggesting that true and robust management can not emerge from such a corrupt and self-serving system.
With a historical past marked by all of the mistaken traits, it was unthinkable that President Mohamud would resort to bloody battle to resolve disputes with regional states, significantly Jubaland—particularly after he vocally condemned such ways throughout Farmajo’s administration. Listening to his speeches from 2019 to 2022, one can not assist however word the stark contradiction in his present actions. It’s a shameful irony when a frontrunner fails to uphold the ideas he as soon as preached, repeating the very errors he condemned in his predecessor.
A bloody battle with Jubaland wouldn’t solely displace hundreds of Somalis to neighboring Kenya, doubtlessly triggering a humanitarian catastrophe worse than the 2011 drought, however it could additionally undo practically twenty years of state-building progress. Such a battle would deepen clan rivalries within the area, additional destabilizing an already fragile society and setting again the prospects for lasting peace and unity in Somalia.
It’s a stark actuality that no politician or clan in Somalia has ever been ousted militarily by one other. Whereas Madobe could lack the assist of many Jubaland communities—marginalizing some—he undeniably instructions the loyalty of his Ogaden clan. On this context, he may simply painting the battle as an invasion by President Mohamud’s Hawiye clan, inciting a return to civil battle and clan-based hostilities. Such a state of affairs would ensnare Mohamud in a deadly quagmire, rendering him incapable of advancing or retreating, whereas additional deepening the nation’s fragile divisions.
Dialogue should stay the one viable path to resolve the Jubaland disaster. If President Mohamud expects Madobe to behave justly, he should first reveal the correct plan of action and show that Madobe is the only real get together within the mistaken. If President Mohamud insists that Madobe maintain common elections, he should lead by instance and be certain that truthful elections are held in 2026. It’s then that Madobe will both fulfill the general public’s calls for or face the implications of failing to take action. Somalia can not afford one other bloody battle, significantly one which diverts consideration from the continued battle with Al-Shabaab, which the present management has but to successfully negotiate or defeat, a standoff that has already price the lives of hundreds of younger Somalis since 2022.
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