MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is scheduled to journey to Addis Ababa on Saturday following an official invitation from Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The 2 leaders will have interaction in high-stakes talks aimed toward resolving a year-long dispute between their nations.
Along with his go to to Ethiopia, Mohamud may even journey to Kampala on the identical day to fulfill Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, with discussions set to concentrate on the operations of the African Union Help and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).
The important thing subject of dialog between Mohamud and Abiy would be the ongoing dispute over a sea entry settlement that Abiy signed with the breakaway area of Somaliland. This deal has sparked robust opposition from Mogadishu, considerably heightening tensions between the 2 neighboring nations. An extra level of rivalry is the involvement of Ethiopian forces in AUSSOM, an engagement initially rejected by Somalia however later accepted.
Beforehand, the 2 governments reached an preliminary accord in Ankara, mediated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. On this settlement, either side pledged to respect one another’s sovereignty and proceed negotiations to resolve their variations. These upcoming talks are anticipated to construct on that basis, probably leading to a proper settlement granting Ethiopia entry to Somalia’s coast and permitting Ethiopian troops to play an important function in AUSSOM. In return, Mohamud is more likely to search Ethiopia’s help in exerting stress on Somali regional leaders, together with these from Jubaland and Puntland, with whom he has vital political disagreements.
The timing of this diplomatic go to coincides with an anticipated journey by Turkish President Erdogan to each Somalia and Ethiopia. It’s speculated that Erdogan is actively encouraging the decision of this dispute earlier than his arrival within the Horn of Africa. Nonetheless, the forthcoming talks have sparked controversy, significantly on Somali social media, the place many voters—together with politicians and analysts—have expressed deep considerations. Critics argue that Mohamud’s resolution to interact in talks with Ethiopia comes regardless of his earlier assertions that Ethiopia seeks to annex Somalia’s coast by power, with no significant concessions from Ethiopia.
Abdirashid Hashi, former director of the Heritage Institute in Somalia, voiced his skepticism, warning that Abiy’s intentions stay centered on undermining Somalia’s sovereignty.
“Abiy and his deep state know find out how to manipulate and push their pursuits. They’re making a wedge between you and your folks, setting you up for betrayal as soon as they have you ever uncovered,” Hashi wrote on X.
He additionally questioned the potential penalties of Mohamud’s strategy, urging the president to contemplate the robust alliances Somalia has constructed with nations comparable to Egypt, Djibouti, and Eritrea, all of which have risked their relationships with Ethiopia to help Somalia.
“Somalia has constructed robust allies like Egypt, Djibouti, and Eritrea, who caught their necks out for Somalia and for you as a pacesetter. They risked and strained their relationships with Ethiopia and Abiy’s enablers—those that want in poor health for Somalia. Are you throwing that every one away too?” he questioned.
Hashi, who has supported Mohamud publicly since his re-election, urged the president to redirect his efforts in direction of resolving inside disputes with regional states comparable to Puntland and Jubaland, in addition to addressing tensions with opposition politicians in Mogadishu. He warned that if Abiy seeks to stress or have interaction in battle with these regional states on Mohamud’s behalf, it might have dire penalties for Somalia and the president’s political future.
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