Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia shattered the hope for peace and prosperity for the individuals within the Horn of Africa. After being famend as a peacemaker and a winner of the Nobel Prize, he has been entangled in a battle with the Amhara and Oromo ethnic teams. Concurrently, he expresses a want for a renewed struggle in opposition to Eritrea. For the final six months, he persistently articulated that the land-locked Ethiopia wants sea entry via diplomacy or pressure. His public discourse extols populism in disguise of the greatness of Ethiopia, typically underscored by any means’ occupation of strategic ports on the Pink Sea. Notably, the PM’s frequent proclamations, echoed by his generals stating, “We’re getting ready for a brand new struggle,” recommend a deliberate effort by the Abiy regime to prepared its individuals for a looming battle.
This rhetoric conveys a harmful ideology and a conviction that victory over Somalia, Eritrea, and different Ethnic communities in Ethiopia is achievable and is significant to resolving Ethiopia’s advanced disaster. As acknowledged by Prof. Mohamed Hassan, Ethiopia’s socioeconomic and political situations are underneath nice stress. For example, 70% of Amhara and Oromo lands are out of his fingers; the economic system is a shamble, unemployment and poverty are rising, and the Tegre disaster is unresolved. The prevailing ideology inside the Abiy regime appears to be {that a} army confrontation is inevitable. Abiy continues the politics of exclusion and domination of 1 ethnic group, which is a political tradition of Ethiopia that has repeatedly failed. He doesn’t imagine in a democratic Ethiopia. Thus, there isn’t any doubt that Abiy’s ideology of Oromumma primarily based on Oromo domination in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa at massive will meet the identical failure.
In accordance with his grand technique, Abiy Ahmed initially set his sights on the strategic port of Assab in Eritrea, a seaport of great historic significance for Ethiopia till Eritrea achieved independence in 1993. Nevertheless, the army power of Eritrea dissuaded him from a brand new army journey in opposition to Eritrea, and he started to search for an accessible various. He thought the vulnerability and divisions amongst Somalis would allow him to succeed in his goals by signing a MoU with Muse Bihi, determined for recognition. Certainly, he miscalculated the power of the Somali individuals and their nationalistic fervor. The dream of Abiy precipitated the bell to ring in Mogadishu in regards to the potential Ethiopian plan to annex a hall between Zeila and Lughaye in Somaliland. The undesignated space is claimed to be close to Zeila, the historic city adjoining to Djibouti, positioned within the area of Awdal. It’s the closest hyperlink to the Ethiopian border with Somaliland, starting from 60 to 80 km. This area is primarily the habitat of the Gadabursi and Isse clans, settled throughout the Somaliland and Ethiopian border areas.
Abiy Ahmed and Muse Bihi signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that gives Ethiopia with a 20-kilometer hall to the Pink Sea, full with the development of a industrial port and a base for the Ethiopian navy. In change, Ethiopia will help Somaliland in getting recognition and giving shares from the Ethiopian airways. The MoU addresses the dream of two peoples; for Ethiopia, it’s a seaport, and Somaliland, it’s a recognition. In consequence, opposition to the 2 regimes has been silenced or compelled to help the MoU. This MoU has turn into a focus of regional tensions, elevating considerations within the Pink Sea basin international locations like Eritrea, Djibouti, Sudan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. The geopolitical ramifications lengthen past speedy borders, reverberating a ripple impact throughout the broader worldwide group. The Horn of Africa coast is a connecting waterway of the Indian Ocean, the Pink Sea, and the Mediterranean Sea linked via the Suez Canal and a hub for international commerce. The harmful implication was expressed by the worldwide media shops, which alerted the emergence of renewed battle within the area and its potential affect on the world economic system. The consequences of such an MoU have sparked widespread discussions and debates, contributing to heightened uncertainty within the strategically very important Horn of Africa and the Pink Sea basin.
In response to the MoU, the Somali parliament has enacted a legislation signed by President Hassan Sheikh, nullifying the MoU. Actually, Abiy squandered the great religion of the Somalis and excessive expectations for regional peace and collaboration with Ethiopia, in addition to the historic Somali-Ethiopian rapprochement since Abiy’s rise to energy in 2018. This decisive transfer displays the Somali Federal authorities’s unwavering stance in opposition to the settlement. Concurrently, the Somali individuals inside the Horn of Africa area and diaspora have denounced the MoU, emphasizing their steadfast help for the Somali Federal Authorities on this very important subject. This strong opposition to the MoU has manifested in varied kinds, together with demonstrations, city corridor conferences, group discussions, expressions of solidarity, and denouncement of the MoU.
Moreover, the Somali authorities has launched into a diplomatic transfer garnering help from key international gamers such because the USA, UK, China, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Italy, Eritrea, and Djibouti. The Somali authorities’s proactive strategy goals to fortify its worldwide place to safeguard its territorial integrity in opposition to the adventurism of Abiy Ahmed’s regime. Furthermore, the Somali diplomatic drive extends to subregional, regional, and worldwide establishments, together with the Intergovernmental Authority on Improvement (IGAD), African Union (AU), Arab League (AL), European Union (EU), Group of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and the United Nations (UN). These entities have rallied to help Somalia’s territorial unity and sovereignty, underlining the importance of worldwide backing for the nation’s stance on this essential subject.
Abiy Ahmed dissipated the individuals’s craving for peace and have become a warmonger within the Horn of Africa. As a substitute of fostering unity, his actions have sparked inside battle, igniting tensions amongst varied ethnic teams in Ethiopia. Notably, his pursuit of army preparations for a possible battle with Eritrea starkly contrasts the popularity bestowed upon him with the Nobel Peace Prize for resolving the Ethiopian-Eritrean battle. Furthermore, the latest signing of the MoU with Muse Bihi, the unpopular separatist Somaliland President, has additional exacerbated the state of affairs. It’s important to notice that Muse Bihi, immersed within the inside political battle and the loser of the struggle with SSC-Khatumo, is playing for his re-election by entertaining his individuals with untenable recognition. This MoU has not solely rekindled historic animosities between Somalia and Ethiopia however has additionally given rise to widespread anger and heightened nationalism amongst Somalis each inside the Horn of Africa and throughout the globe. It additionally reinvigorated and supplied a fertile atmosphere for the extremist Al-Shabab, underneath large stress from the Somali armed forces. Al-Shabaab declared their use of this MoU to mobilize recruits and lengthen their operation to Somaliland, which was secure beforehand. As Al-Shabaab claimed, Somaliland can be a goal to wage Jihad in opposition to Abiy Ahmed’s expansionist impulse.
Who’s Abiy Ahmed?
To know the dangerous ideology of Abiy Ahmed that necessitates the collective actions of peace-loving individuals of the Horn of Africa and past, we’ll briefly discover Abiy Ahmed’s ideology. Abiy is deeply rooted in his religion as a faithful Pentecostal Christian, born to a Muslim father and a Christian mom. Pentecostalism is a Protestant Christian motion highlighting a direct private encounter with God via the baptism with the Holy Spirit. This non secular baptism is marked by receiving “the charismata,” supernatural presents bestowed by the Holy Spirit, together with talking in tongues, prophecy, and therapeutic. Thus, Abiy Ahmed’s unwavering dedication to Pentecostal Christian beliefs is clear via household participation in church actions. Abiy sometimes engaged in ministerial duties, sharing his Gospel information via preaching and instructing on the Ethiopian Full Gospel Believers’ Church. In accordance with his core perception, he prophesied and had a conviction that God tasked him to ship his Oromo ethnicity from the historic oppression and marginalization of the orthodox Christians of Amhara and Tegre. As such, Abiy adheres to the Oromumma ideology to realize his prophecy, as was revealed in confidential paperwork broadly shared on most social media platforms.
If this doc is genuine, there isn’t any doubt that Abiy is a harmful individual threatening the entire inhabitants of the Horn of Africa. The paperwork’ operational technique consists of a number of essential elements. The ultimate goal of this ideology is to ascertain a Kush Republic or Nice Oromia, which shall be achieved by diminishing the affect of Amhara, Tigray, and Eritrea within the first part. This bold objective necessitates the instigation of wars between these ethnic communities and the systematic undermining of the Orthodox Church, which is the first denomination of Amhara and Tigray, by sowing inside divisions. Furthermore, the technique entails securing Oromia’s dominance inside Ethiopia’s safety forces. The cornerstone of this technique is having access to the Pink Sea.
The second part of this technique is to unite Oromia in Ethiopia and Kenya and the Cushitic individuals, the Somalis, Afar, and others. Abiy’s strategy displays a imaginative and prescient intertwining his spiritual beliefs and Nice Oromia aspirations. This doesn’t imply the Oromo persons are supporting him since a lot of their leaders are imprisoned by Abiy, and OLA-OLF declared their unequivocal help for Somalia’s territorial unity. In accordance with the confidential doc, Abiy disagrees with most Oromo aspirants for self-determination, such because the Oromo Liberation Entrance (OLF). He considers the basis reason behind Oromia’s challenges lies in Amhara and Tigray. In Abiy’s strategic imaginative and prescient, he thinks the Somalis are integral to forming an awesome Cushitic Republic. The signature of the MoU with Somaliland aligns with the achievement of this broader technique. By together with Somalis on this imaginative and prescient, Abiy goals to consolidate a robust alliance of the Cushitic individuals. It displays his perception that fostering collaboration and partnerships with sure areas whereas securing a strategic location on the Pink Sea is essential for Oromia’s final prosperity and success. The signing of the MoU is thus positioned as a deliberate step towards realizing this complete technique.
Amidst this advanced and evolving harmful ideology of Abiy, the intellectuals of the Horn area, peace activists, civil society organizations, and diaspora communities ought to unite to forestall the doubtless disastrous penalties of Abiy Ahmed’s technique and insurance policies. The technique of igniting tensions amongst varied ethnic communities threatens to sow seeds of desperation and hopelessness amongst our individuals. In response to this problem, the collective voice of the Horn of Africa’s intelligentsia and smart people should rise with renewed power. Now, greater than ever, there’s a urgent want for a unified stance that advocates for peace, prosperity, and brotherhood amongst all ethnic communities within the area. Staying silent within the face of this potential calamity is unacceptable. The intellectuals and the Horn of Africa’s thought leaders and influencers actively communicate out in opposition to the destabilizing actions and insurance policies threatening the area’s stability. By a united entrance, the intelligentsia and smart people can contribute considerably to mitigating the affect of those insurance policies and fostering an atmosphere conducive to peace, cooperation, and shared prosperity among the many numerous ethnic communities of the Horn of Africa.
Alternatively, the urgent state of affairs within the Horn is risky, and expansionist Abiy Ahmed’s regime calls for speedy intervention from the IGAD and AU. Urgency is paramount because of the belligerent actions taken by Abiye Ahmed in looking for the last word annexation of elements of Somalia (ambiguously camouflaged as a 50-year lease) that the Somali state has unequivocally rejected. Furthermore, the worldwide group should actively interact in diplomatic efforts to advertise dialogue between the Federal Somali Republic and Somaliland, stop Ethiopia from interfering in Somali inside affairs, and work in the direction of a peaceable decision that respects the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and unity of all nations within the Horn of Africa.
By : Dr. Abdurahman Baadiyow
E-mail: abdurahmanba@yahoo.com
———-
Dr. Abdurahman Baadiyow is a Professor of Trendy Islamic Historical past and a Senior Adviser for the Somali President on Peace and Reconciliation.
